Anambra Elections; A case for 2027 Presidential Elections

 The recent governorship election in Anambra State has significant implications for the forthcoming presidential election in Nigeria. With the state’s results now in, it is worth exploring how this event might influence national dynamics, voter behaviour, party strategy and regional alliances ahead of the next presidential contest.

A strong mandate in Anambra

In the November 2025 poll, Chukwuma Soludo of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) secured a landslide victory, winning in all 21 local government areas of the state.  Voter accreditation reached about 598,229 out of approximately 2.79 million registered voters—an encouraging uptick compared to previous elections. Analysts attribute Soludo’s win to his incumbency advantage, visible infrastructure achievements, the strength of the APGA grassroots network and his effective alignment with federal power centres. 

This strong showing suggests two things: firstly, voters in Anambra are looking for continuity and tangible delivery; secondly, the APGA model in the South-East remains potent and may shape how parties approach national elections from the region.

Implications for the presidential race

The presidential election (scheduled for 2027) will not be fought in isolation. The Anambra result offers several preparatory signals:

1. Regional power dynamics
   The South-East zone remains a significant bloc in national politics. A dominant APGA win in Anambra implies the region could deliver a cohesive swing if mobilised effectively. Parties contesting nationally will need to engage meaningfully with the area, not merely treat it as an afterthought. The ability of a presidential contender or party to connect with voters in Anambra and neighbouring states will be a vital asset.

2. Incumbency and performance as benchmarks
   Soludo’s success shows incumbents can win convincingly if they deliver and maintain grassroots networks. Nationally, this raises the bar for presidential hopefuls: candidates must not just campaign but demonstrate track records or credible plans for delivery. Voters are increasingly evaluating actual performance rather than rhetoric alone.

3. Party‐brand strength and organisational depth
   APGA has demonstrated strong organisational depth in the state. For national contenders and parties—whether major or emergent—building structures at the ward and local government level will be essential. The presidential race may favour those with local machines in all zones rather than just big names.

   
   
   

4. Message resonance and young voters
   The increased mobilisation in Anambra also signals that young, informed voters may be willing to participate when they see value and stakes. For the presidential contest, this demographic will matter more than ever. If the Anambra vote shows a willingness to reward governance and reject empty promises, national campaigns must target this audience seriously.

5. Precursor to coalition‐building and national strategy
   The result in Anambra suggests that the presidential race may involve more strategic alliances, not just across major parties but among regional actors, influential local parties, elders, and grassroots networks. Emerging political alignments will likely consider how to leverage a zone like the South-East that turned out decisively in Anambra.

Caveats and counterpoints

While the Anambra election provides useful signals, it is not a guarantee of how the presidential outcome will unfold. Some caveats:

• Different electorate scale and dynamics: National elections bring far more variables — ethnic balancing, religion, geopolitics, region vs. region, and national issues like economy and security. What works in a state may not directly scale up.

• State vs federal issues: Voters in a gubernatorial election may focus more on local infrastructure, basic services and local government. In a presidential contest, macro issues like national security, foreign policy, and economic growth become more salient. The successful message in Anambra may need adaptation for national audiences.

• Regionalisation vs national coalition: A strong regional win (Anambra) could by itself be insufficient if a candidate fails to build national appeal. The presidential winner typically must achieve at least 25 % in two‐thirds of states plus a broad national reach — meaning that dominance in one state is helpful but not decisive alone.

• Turnout and mobilisation risk: Although Anambra saw improved participation, overall turnout in past presidential elections has been uneven in the South‐East. For example, in 2023, the presidential vote turnout in Anambra was less than 25 %. Sustaining momentum from a governorship to a national contest may require intensive mobilisation and coalition work.

  
  
  

Strategic lessons for stakeholders

From the Anambra outcome, political actors should draw key strategic lessons:

• Invest early in grassroots: Parties must build ward and local government networks, engage traditional and community leaders, mobilise youth, and maintain presence beyond campaign seasons.

• Demonstrate governance credentials: Whether incumbents or aspirants, showing real delivery—roads, health, education, security—creates credibility. In Anambra, voters appeared to reward such delivery. 

• Engage regional dynamics seriously: The South-East—and particularly states like Anambra—cannot be ignored. National campaigns must engage regional identity, values, and issues meaningfully while connecting them to national objectives.

• Messaging must evolve for the national context: While local issues matter, the presidential race will demand plans for the national economy, security, integrity, and youth empowerment. Campaigns should build from local wins (e.g., Anambra) to national narratives.

• Build inclusive alliances: Given the diversity of Nigeria, winning one zone strongly is helpful but insufficient. Presidential contenders should build bridges across zones, ethnicities and faiths, using state results like Anambra as proof of local strength while expanding their coalition.

Conclusion

The 2025 Anambra State election offers a rich foretaste of what to expect in Nigeria’s next presidential contest. The emphatic win by APGA’s Chukwuma Soludo signals that voters are paying attention to performance, party organisation and local credibility. For presidential hopefuls and parties, the lesson is clear: winning nationally will require combining strong grassroots machines, credible governance narratives, meaningful regional engagement (especially in zones like the South-East), and wide coalitions that transcend local wins.

As Nigeria prepares for the next presidential race, the Anambra outcome should serve as a clarion call—for incumbents and challengers alike—to imagine beyond big rallies and slogans, and instead deliver, mobilise, and engage deeply with all corners of the country. The national battleground in 2027 may well be shaped, in part, by what happened at the state level in places such as Anambra.